Introduction to the Survey
A new poll shows the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is clearly in the lead in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, seven months before an election there. The Forsa survey for the Baltic Sea newspaper shows the AfD with 37 percent, ahead of Prime Minister Manuela Schwesig’s center-left Social Democrats (SPD) with 23 percent and the center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) with 13 percent.
Current Poll Results
The socialist Left Party, which currently governs in a coalition with the SPD, was measured at 11%. The state election is scheduled for September 20th. The business-oriented Free Democrats (FDP) with 2% and the Greens with 4% would miss the 5% hurdle and leave the state parliament, while the populist Left BSW would be just on the edge with 5%. Forsa surveyed 1,003 eligible voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania between February 9th and 16th.
Comparison to Previous Polls
Compared to an Infratest dimap poll for NDR published at the end of January, the AfD gained 2 points, while the SPD lost 2, while the CDU was unchanged at 13%. Opinion research institutes point out that surveys reflect the opinion at the time of the survey and are not forecasts, with the stated error rate in the Forsa survey being plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Implications of the Survey
While the AfD would become the strongest force in the state parliament according to current figures, all major political parties have declared that they will not work with it. In the 2021 state election, the SPD won 39.6%, the AfD got 16.7%, the CDU got 13.3%, the Left Party got 9.9%, the Greens got 6.3% and the FDP got 5.8%. The survey results indicate a significant shift in voter support, with the AfD gaining popularity in the region.
