Introduction to America’s Energy Emergency
Donald Trump declared a questionable “national energy emergency” when he entered the White House. Soon he might actually have one. The president promised that his America would do "baby exercises" to reach new levels of prosperity by making the most of its oil and gas reserves.
Shift in Energy Policy
Mr. Trump has now eliminated hundreds of billions in tax breaks and grants for low-carbon and clean energy research and instead allocated them to fossil fuel investments. There is no better example than Revolution Wind, one of the largest offshore renewable energy projects in America. With the work nearly 80% complete, the White House ordered an immediate halt. When visited, the huge, 200m-wide turbines were in operation – an injunction allowed construction to continue – but they are not yet connected to the grid.
Impact on Renewable Energy Projects
As long as Mr. Trump is in power, it is not certain that they ever will be. The future of other major wind and solar developments are also in question, as is more than $100 billion in clean energy investment. However, there are fewer doubts about the fossil fuel business. The industry is getting what it asked for after supporting Mr Trump’s re-election. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright and many key White House aides and advisers are former fossil fuel industry insiders.
Fossil Fuel Production
Analysis by Global Witness shows that since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, U.S. oil and gas production has grown five times faster than the average for the world’s second-largest producers. A surge that really took off during Mr. Trump’s first presidency. Analysis of the company’s data further shows that oil and gas production in the US is now expected to continue to grow – doubling that of its nearest competitor, Russia, by 2035.
Criticism of Energy Policy
“Instead of reducing investment in dirty oil and gas, the leading causes of climate change, the U.S. has doubled down on fossil fuel use and increased production,” said an analyst. A fact that would likely be music to the ears of the president and many conservative Americans who voted for him. Mr. Trump’s “energy emergency” may have been a predictable response to the “climate emergency” invoked by his political rivals. The only problem is that, aside from accelerating global warming, his energy plan aims to make America worse off.
Increasing Energy Demand
US energy demand expected to grow by 25%. For the first time in years, electricity demand in the USA has increased. This is being driven in part by a race to build power-hungry data centers – compounded by Mr Trump’s goal of American supremacy in AI. Demand is increasing and renewable energy is the fastest and most cost-effective way to achieve this. President Trump has championed AI supremacy by supporting investments in massive, energy-hungry data centers and cutting red tape.
Consequences of Energy Policy
According to an analysis by ICF International, energy demand in the US is expected to increase by 25% by 2030 after declining and then stabilizing over several years. But where will all the electricity come from? We went to Mitsubishi Power, which makes state-of-the-art gas turbines for power plants at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia. According to Bill Newsom, the US CEO, demand for new turbines has never been greater. Waiting times for new turbines are now twice as long as they were two years ago.
Conclusion
And while America will need gas to meet rising demand—it’s twice as clean as coal and provides "baseload" electricity that renewable energy grids can’t yet match—it can’t be built fast enough. American companies, including AI, are likely to suffer because they don’t get the performance they need. US consumers – to whom Mr Trump has promised lower bills – will end up paying more because he has also made renewable energy more expensive. Not to mention the impact on CO2 emissions. The speed of transition required to reach the Paris 1.5°C target has always been very expensive, as countries like the UK are finding out. But by fighting one “emergency” with another, Mr. Trump risks worsening the situation for Americans — and the climate.
