US and China Relations

Despite all the risk-taking and high stakes, the US and China have made progress in stabilizing their relationship. This is evident in the agreements reached on key issues such as transporting rare earth metals, buying soybeans, reducing tariffs, and cracking down on the trade in fentanyl and the chemicals used to make it.

Differences in Style

The differences in style between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping were clear from the start. Trump moved quickly to dominate the room, leaning in and talking to the assembled reporters, while Xi preferred a more scripted approach. This contrast in style highlights the difficulties in agreeing between two opposing systems.

Progress Made

There appears to have been agreement on several key issues, including selling high-end devices and working together to try to end the war in Ukraine. However, the reality is that there is still a huge gap between the two countries, with many barriers to trade and deep political and structural issues dividing them.

Lack of Guarantees

There are no built-in guarantees to prevent either party from breaking their agreements and ratcheting up the pressure again. Given the characters involved, this seems all too likely. Both sides have seen political benefits in the "maximum pressure" politics of recent months, and Xi is unlikely to give in to Trump’s pressure now.

Future Meetings

The two leaders have agreed to meet again early next year, with Trump planning to visit China in April. This offers more diplomatic opportunities, but it would be naive to assume that everything will go smoothly until then. The level of distrust left by the trade war will require more than just a meeting to resolve, and differences of opinion, such as those over the future status of Taiwan, were not even mentioned.

Conclusion

While progress has been made, the relationship between the US and China remains fragile. The lack of guarantees and the contrasting styles of the two leaders mean that the situation could easily collapse. The upcoming meeting in April provides an opportunity for further diplomatic efforts, but it is unlikely that everything will go smoothly.