Ukraine’s Drone Attacks on Russian Energy Infrastructure
Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have significantly affected Moscow’s export activities in recent months, but are also impacting other countries, particularly Kazakhstan. At the end of November, Ukrainian drone attacks paralyzed one of the three most important tanker loading facilities in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk in Russia. This export terminal is the end of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) oil pipeline, which transports crude oil from Kazakhstan’s giant Tengiz oil field, more than 1,600 kilometers away.
Impact on Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector
The ongoing impact on Kazakhstan’s energy sector is already clear. Oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan fell 35% between January 1 and 12 compared to the December average, mainly due to export restrictions via the Black Sea terminal. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said that CPC continued to export oil via a pier. However, the decline in production has drawn criticism of Ukraine’s tactics, with some arguing that the attacks have a far greater material impact on Kazakhstan and Ukraine’s allies than on Russia.
Importance of Oil Exports to Kazakhstan’s Economy
Oil exports are crucial to the Kazakh economy. The pipeline transports the majority of Kazakhstan’s crude oil exports to the global market. Although most of its journey passes through Russian territory, it is primarily an economic advantage of Kazakhstan. Only about 15% of the oil transported in 2024 was Russian oil. The Central Asian country has largely built its economy on its oil sector, with the Tengiz oil field being the crown jewel. Kazakh oil has attracted billions in investments from U.S. oil companies such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil.
The Wrong Target?
However, this plan was scuppered – at least in the short term – by the Ukrainian attacks. Exports from Tengiz are heavily dependent on the Novorossiysk terminal with few other options available. The damage to Kazakhstan’s export capacity has drawn criticism of Ukraine’s tactics. After the drone strike in November, it was argued that it had a far greater material impact on Kazakhstan and Ukraine’s allies than on Russia. To Ukrainian commanders tasked with reducing Russia’s oil export revenues, the CPC may appear as just another part of Russia’s oil infrastructure.
Can Kazakhstan Diversify its Export Routes?
Several experts believe the November attack highlighted the risks to Kazakhstan’s oil sector posed by its reliance on Russian infrastructure and transit. The attack had "highlighted the weakness of confidence in a single route" and underscored the need to step up Kazakh attempts to export to Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline and to China via a smaller pipeline. However, currently the two options offer limited potential to replace the CPC’s huge volumes, meaning Kazakhstan would remain "highly dependent on Russian routes for the majority of its exports" for the time being.
Alternative Export Routes
Kazakhstan exports oil to Germany and Hungary, but this oil is transported via the Russian Druzhba pipeline and not the CPC pipeline. This means that the November attack did not have a major impact on the quantities transported to Europe via Druzhba. However, Ukrainian drone strikes have also targeted the Druzhba pipeline infrastructure. Attacks last August led to a brief supply disruption. Kazakh oil transported via this pipeline is becoming increasingly important for German refineries such as the PCK refinery in the northeastern town of Schwedt. Kazakh oil imports to Germany increased in 2025, and a further increase is forecast for 2026.
