New Enrollment Data for Affordable Care Act
New federal data shows significantly fewer Americans have signed up for a health insurance plan under the Affordable Care Act, and millions face higher premiums after tax subsidies under the insurance program expire in December.
Decline in Enrollment
According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), 22.8 million people have signed up for ACA coverage for 2026 since open enrollment began Nov. 1. That’s 1.4 million fewer than the number of Americans who signed up for Obamacare, as the health insurance plans are called, a year ago. Nationwide, about 800,000 fewer people opted into plans than in the comparable period last year, representing a 3.5% decline in total enrollment. That includes a decline in both the number of new customers enrolling in ACA plans and the number of existing enrollees adding them back up.
Impact of Expired Tax Credits
The decline in enrollment comes as many ACA participants face significantly higher monthly premiums as tax credits expired on Dec. 31 and households’ monthly health insurance costs were reduced. After months of debate and a government shutdown, Congress has yet to extend the loans or agree on another remedy. Over 20 million Americans received ACA subsidies last year. Health policy group estimates that their premiums could rise an average of 114%, from about $888 in 2025 to $1,904 this year, unless the tax credits are extended.
Potential Consequences
Experts warn that ending subsidies could prompt more people to give up their insurance in the face of higher premiums and deductibles. The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that four million people will eventually lose their insurance without a loan extension. Some ACA students who drop coverage may have other options, such as joining their partner’s employer’s health plan or changing their income to qualify for Medicaid. Others probably will go without insurance while they look for alternatives. A health economist predicts that two million more people will be without health insurance for a while, which is a serious problem.
