Introduction to the Flu Season
Flu should always be taken seriously. It is a virus that kills thousands of people every winter and puts a strain on hospitals. However, the current flu season has been described in the media and by some health officials as a "super flu" and "unprecedented", while experts claim it is nothing out of the ordinary.
The Reality of the Flu Season
The flu season started a month early in the UK, suggesting the virus may be spreading further than normal. Scientists tracking the variety of flu viruses found that seven new mutations in one strain of influenza, called H3N2, emerged in June. This newly mutated virus quickly became the dominant form of H3N2. However, the reality is more like a regular flu than a super flu. The K flu virus has not gained a dramatic ability to spread through the population.
The Spread of the Virus
The speed of spread was basically very similar to previous years, it was at the upper end, but it was not an outlier. The mutations actually gave the virus a slight head start in overcoming our immunity – about 5-10% more than usual. H3N2 viruses are increasingly serious for older people, and there is no clear evidence that the virus is worse than expected this year.
The Flu Vaccine
A quick analysis of the seasonal flu vaccine also suggested it worked in line with previous years, despite fears of a discrepancy. The things that have been seen unusually this season are the early start to the season, and the change in the virus, with more development than normally seen. But overall, it is a broadly typical flu season in terms of the impact on the NHS and the impact on people’s health.
The "Super Flu" Description
The term "super flu" is not a scientific description, and there are no particularly unusual symptoms, no evidence that it is associated with exceptional severity, exceptionally rapid spread, or exceptional health effects. One of the top flu scientists said the virus was "not particularly unusual" and saw "no evidence" that the virus was "particularly different". The description "super flu" would not be used by experts.
Crying Wolf?
Convincing people to get vaccinated against the flu saves lives. However, experts question whether the escalation in language used since the Covid pandemic could affect trust in official health advice. There is a risk of a "cry wolf" effect that damages trust and causes people to become "numb" to advice. A good balance is needed between raising awareness and avoiding scaremongering or excessive scaremongering, which can backfire.
The Risk of Overusing Scaremongering Language
There is a risk of overusing the narrative that viruses will overwhelm the NHS when ultimately the NHS is not overwhelmed to the point where it is no longer able to carry out emergency and essential functions. Using words like "superflu" when we may one day see a real superflu is worrying. We have to be very, very careful about how we communicate these things to the public because there is a risk of crying wolf.
