Introduction to the Flu Season
The NHS is facing its “worst case scenario” after the number of people in hospital with flu rose by 55% in a week in England. Between 5,000 and 8,000 hospital beds could be occupied by flu patients by the weekend. Health experts said talk of a "relentless flu epidemic" had become worryingly familiar in recent years. However, the NHS medical director in London said the situation was “well within” what the NHS could manage.
An Earlier Start to the Flu Season
The main difference between the 2025 flu season and the previous three years is that the virus began spreading about a month earlier. The first sign of this came in October in data published by the UK Health Security Agency. If someone goes to their GP or hospital with flu-like symptoms, they can be tested for a range of viruses including influenza, Covid and RSV. The UK Health Security Agency records the percentage of tests that come back positive for flu, which can then be a strong indication that rates in the community are either rising or falling.
The "Super Flu" Variant
Virologists have linked the flu season earlier this year to a subtle change in the genetic makeup of the main circulating flu virus, called H3N2. The so-called “super flu” is not a medical term and does not mean that the virus is more serious or difficult to treat. However, the general public has never been exposed to this exact variant of the flu, meaning there may be less immunity built up in society and the flu can spread more easily.
Children and Young People are Most Affected
Children tend to be more susceptible to flu than older adults, in part because their immune systems are still developing and because they tend to spread viruses more quickly through close contact. The latest breakdown of data shows that the proportion of positive tests is currently significantly higher among children and young people who are still at school or university. Some schools have had to introduce Covid-like measures to prevent the spread of the virus, such as restricting singing in gatherings and setting up disinfection stations.
The Flu Increases Winter Pressure
The NHS records the number of patients in hospital suffering from flu and other types of respiratory illnesses every week. In England, the number has risen sharply. Last week, an average of 2,660 flu patients required a hospital bed, up from 1,717 the previous week. People over 85 are five times more likely to be hospitalized than the general population. The NHS has around 105,000 free hospital beds in England and tends to become “overheated” in winter, with 95% of beds occupied at any one time.
Vaccination Protection
The message from doctors and the NHS is that people from vulnerable groups should continue to get the flu vaccination. Even though the genetic makeup of the virus has changed this winter, it is still assumed that the main vaccination offers effective protection, especially against serious illnesses. The flu vaccine is free on the NHS for people over 65, young children, pregnant women, people with certain health problems, carers and frontline health and social care workers. As of November 30, around 70% of older people and nursing home residents had accepted the offer of a free flu vaccination. However, vaccination rates among younger risk groups were lower, at just over 40%.
