Introduction to Ukraine’s Agricultural Sector
Ukraine is known as the “breadbasket of the world” due to its fertile soils, vast farmland, and history of feeding empires and global markets. The country has 41.3 million hectares of arable land, with two-thirds covered in black earth, the most fertile soil in the world. This allows Ukraine to achieve high crop productivity with minimal use of fertilizers, irrigation, labor, and heavy machinery.
Historical Context and Export Significance
Before the Russian invasion in February 2022, agriculture accounted for 41% of Ukraine’s export revenue in 2021, totaling $27.8 billion. The country was a major food supplier to the world, particularly the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia. Ukraine accounted for about 8% of global wheat exports, 13% of corn exports, and 12% of barley exports, as well as supplying 40-50% of the world’s sunflower oil.
Impact of the Russian Invasion
The Russian invasion had a devastating impact on Ukraine’s domestic economy and global food security. Moscow’s forces seized large swathes of farmland, and a Russian naval blockade, missile attacks, and mined waters halted almost all shipments through Ukraine’s main export route, the Black Sea. Export volumes plunged by over 90% in the first three months of 2022 compared to the previous year, leading to a global rise in food prices and worsening hunger crises in import-dependent countries.
Recovery and Resilience
Despite the challenges, Ukraine’s exports recovered quickly. The Black Sea Grains Initiative, launched by the United Nations and Turkey in July 2022, reopened three Ukrainian ports, allowing the export of 33 million tons of grain by July 2023. The European Union’s "Solidarity Lanes" also played a crucial role in facilitating grain exports through rail, river, and road routes. These efforts resulted in Ukraine’s exports rebounding to around 64 million tonnes in 2023/24, restoring 75% of pre-war levels and stabilizing global food security.
Ongoing Challenges and Pressures
More than three years after the Russian invasion, Ukraine’s agricultural sector continues to face significant challenges. The country recorded a 38% decline in agricultural exports in September 2024 compared to the same month in 2023, partly due to Russia’s increased attacks on Black Sea ports. The forecast for the 2025/26 season is also less optimistic, with Ukraine’s grain harvests expected to decline by 10% due to ongoing war disruption.
Humanitarian Impact and Food Insecurity
The war has had a profound humanitarian impact, with about 20% of Ukraine’s population, approximately 7.3 million people, remaining food insecure. The World Food Program sourced 80% of its grain from Ukraine in 2023 to feed about 400 million people in war-torn Yemen and Ethiopia, among other places. Ukraine’s grains are a lifeline for food-insecure regions, filling gaps that no one else can reach at scale.
Threats to Farmers and Agricultural Infrastructure
Farmers in Ukraine face significant risks, including landmines, destroyed irrigation systems, and frequent drone and missile attacks near the front lines. Climate change also poses a significant threat, with rising temperatures and recurring droughts likely to endanger Ukraine’s grain yields in the future. Sustainable peace and demining efforts are necessary to make Ukrainian farmland cultivable again and ensure the country’s continued contribution to global food security.
Conclusion
Ukraine remains a critical player in the global food system, despite the many challenges it faces. The country’s agricultural sector requires ongoing support and investment to overcome the impacts of the war and ensure sustainable food production. Global support in finding a viable peace agreement and boosting trade is essential to secure Ukraine’s crops and feed millions of people around the world.
