Introduction to Europe’s Winter Gas Reserves
The autumn chill is starting to be felt in large parts of Europe, signaling the possibility of a deep freeze this winter. Fortunately, the gas infrastructure in Europe reports that the gas reserves of the European Union are at over 80% as of September 15, 2025. This is lower than the 90% threshold of recent years but stronger than in 2021.
Diversified Energy Supply
The EU countries have diversified their energy supply since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They have floated towards the liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Norway, the United States, and Qatar, and have continued to increase the introduction of renewable energies, including solar and wind. This additional capacity has enabled Europe to ensure that its gas reserves were almost full by September, providing an extra cushion for the coldest months of the year.
Gas Refill Considered Less Critical
Since the EU is no longer in an acute energy crisis, Brussels is flexible and has given EU gas stocks an additional month, until December 1st, to achieve a capacity of 90% if necessary. Europe has also used more gas reserves last winter and less excess than usual. Petras Katinas, Energy Analyst at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, says that the current storage and alternative deliveries provide a "solid buffer" against supply disorders.
Global Energy Supply
The global energy supply has risen this year, while the demand, especially for gas, is likely to be weaker. This has been a real advantage for the refilling of Europe’s storage units this summer, which will continue at a nice clip. Tom Marzec-Man, from the global research and advisory house Wood Mackenzie, says that the supplement to the internal resilience of Europe, the global conditions of supply, and stable prices also support the block’s preparedness for winter.
Russia’s Energy Tariffs Create New Uncertainties
US President Donald Trump has pushed Brussels to sanction buyers of Russian energy, arguing that Moscow earned an additional financial burden to end the conflict. The US Minister of Finance has announced that the EU and the group of 7 (G7) wealthy nations should impose "meaningful" tariffs on China and India for their energy transactions with Moscow. Trump has already imposed 50% tariffs on India and has announced that the United States would "reflect" such tariffs, with a rate of 100% taking into account.
The Ukraine Gas Transit Had Limited Effects
The Ukraine-Russia gas transit agreement, which ended on January 1, was another layer of geopolitical pressure on Europe’s energy supply. Kyiv’s decision not to extend the deal aimed at reducing a source of income that helps finance Russia’s war effort. The initial fears of price spikes and supply disorders were widespread, especially in countries such as Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary, which were more dependent on Russian pipeline gas.
2-Year Goal for Energy Independence from Russia
The EU has driven the energy crisis and is now in a stronger position to diversify the last of its deliveries of Russian hydrocarbons. The block has already reduced Russian gas imports from 45% to 19%, while Russian oil imports have shrunk from 27% to only 3% at the beginning of the war. The European Commission has published a detailed roadmap to completely ban all remaining imports of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas by 2027.
Conclusion
The strong gas stocks and different EU supply lines strengthen the block’s preparedness for winter, but Trump’s tariffs and unpredictable weather cloud the horizon. The natural gas prices will probably not increase to almost €340/MWh ($400), but isolated bottlenecks could trigger temporary spikes.
