Introduction to Airspace Complications
The war between Iran and Israel in the Middle East has led to complications for airlines that want to avoid airspace and at the same time adhere to an ongoing Russian ban on airspace. Although the Iranian airspace was partially reopened after a ceasefire, data from the flight tracking website FLIGHTRADAR24 shows that western airlines still largely avoid flying across the country. Most choose routes that circumvent the western border of the country, through Iraqi airspace or through the Arabian Peninsula.
Impact of Global Conflict on Aviation
Since Russia has excluded western aircraft from its sky since the beginning of its war against Ukraine in early 2022, it is the latest example of how an era of increasing global conflict affects the aviation sector. Another example took place in April of this year when Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian airlines after India started a military campaign with the codename operation Sindoor missile attacks on Pakistan. Although western airlines are not excluded from the Pakistani airspace, most are currently deciding to avoid this.
Aviation Analysts’ Insights
Brendan Sobie, an aviation analyst based in Singapore, says that the airlines do not have to redirect anything new due to conflicts, but he realizes that things are currently particularly "complicated". John Grant, Chief Analyst at the Aviation Data Society OAG, agrees that there are currently "much more activities". He says that the Pakistan-India air space closure is a special problem for Air India, as this means that the company’s aircraft now has to stop while traveling to the USA.
A Risky Business
The complications caused by armed conflicts are always part of the general unpredictability of the airlines. According to Grant, the challenges of business this year are not very different from those of the past decade. Western Airlines have largely adapted to the Russian airspace ban, but other factors, such as increasing environmental taxes, also have a disadvantageous effect on the airlines, making the company too expensive, whereby the costs incurred are "passed on to travelers".
Security Concerns
The perception that the global conflict affects the safety of aviation is clearly a problem. Nick Careen, Senior Vice President for Operations, Security and Security at the International Air Transport Association (IATA), wrote an article about operating safely in a more conflict-ridden world. Careen increased the specific problem of interference with aircraft navigation systems as a "further complication". There was an "increase in incidents," he said, where "parties use radio signals to die the GPS signals, use airlines for navigation", especially in areas that border conflict zones.
GPS Spoofing: A Real Problem
FLIGHTRADAR24’s GPS jamming map shows a map of the world that is divided into areas with low and high GPS interference. The area with the highest level of fault is a circle that extends from the Baltic States, in Ukraine and Russia and in the direction of Türkiye and in parts of the Middle East. Grant notes that GPS jamming for the aviation industry is "another potential risk", but adds that airlines are "extremely aware of and have more than one system for navigating through these airspace". A study by the OPS group reported an increase in the so-called "GPS-Spoofing" between 2023 and 2024. A GPS receiver is manipulated in GPS-Spoofing and receives incorrect GPS information.
Conclusion
Grant believes that practice is undoubtedly on the rise, but it warns that airlines have robust mechanisms to protect themselves against the risks they represent. The entire industry works on the basis of minimizing any potential risk. Airlines are very good at checking what they can control. But there are always uncontrollable factors.
