Box Office Update
Universal’s live-action "How to Train Your Dragon" is expected to remain at number one on its second weekend with an estimated $35.7 million in the US, despite the arrival of zombie sequel "28 Years Later" and animation "Elio". This puts it on track to have the lowest opening in Pixar history amidst! a crowded marketplace for family films.
New Releases
Danny Boyle’s zombie sequel from Sony, "28 Years Later", opened on Friday with $14 million, including $5.8 million from Thursday previews. The film is expected to have a solid start with $30-31 million, which is lower than the initially predicted $35-40 million. Some speculate that the horror market may be oversaturated, led by the cash register hit "Final Destination: Bloodlines".
Performance of 28 Years Later
"28 Years Later" will still have the biggest opening of Boyle’s career and reunites the filmmaker with writer Alex Garland 25 years after "28 Days Later". The film features an ensemble cast, including Jodie Comer, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Jack O’Connell, Alfie Allen, and Ralph Fiennes, in the first installment of a planned trilogy. Reviewers have largely praised the title, but actual cinema-goers are less enthusiastic, with a current audience score of 67% on Rotten Tomatoes compared to 90% from critics.
Elio’s Disappointing Opening
Faced with stiff competition from "How to Train Your Dragon" and fellow Disney release "Lilo & Stitch", "Elio" opened on Friday with $9 million for a projected domestic opening of $20-22 million. The original film about a boy whose desire to travel to space and interact with aliens comes true was expected to open with at least $30 million. However, with a stable decline over the past few days, Disney insiders have lowered their forecasts to $20-25 million.
Pixar’s Struggles
The opening of "Elio" is reminiscent of "Elementary", which opened with $29.6 million in June 2023 and went on to earn nearly $500 million worldwide. Pixar and parent company Disney are confident that "Elio" will have the same kind of perseverance throughout the summer when children are out of school. So far, "Elio" has received better critical reviews on Rotten Tomatoes than "Elementary", as well as shining follow-up results and an A Cinemascore, including an A+ from children.
Changing Landscape of Animation
Pixar has struggled in a world where original animated stories are not reaching the heights they once did, with many families opting to wait and see films at home. However, with the success of "Inside Out 2", which opened with over $1.69 billion worldwide, Pixar and Disney are reversing course and committing to telling original theatrical stories mixed with well-known IP.
Other Films
The live-action "Lilo & Stitch" remains a force to be reckoned with on its fifth weekend and could earn up to $9-10 million in the US for a fourth-place finish. "Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One" continues to show its staying power and is expected to round out the top 5 with $7 million. The romantic drama "Past Lives" from A24 is expected to earn an estimated $5.5-6 million in the US. The numbers will be updated on Sunday morning.
