Introduction to Arctic Heating
The Arctic is heating up at a rate 3.5 times faster than the global average. This rapid warming poses significant security threats to Great Britain, as it opens up more routes for shipping and military ships, and allows for the potential drilling of new gas, oil, and natural minerals in an otherwise untouched ecosystem.
Causes of Arctic Heating
When sea ice disappears, its white surface, which reflects sunlight, gives way to the darker ocean beneath, absorbing more warmth. The Meteorological Organization of the United Nations (WMO) has warned that the Arctic will warm 3.5 times faster than the rest of the world over the next five years, resulting in temperatures at least 2.4 °C warmer than the pre-industrial average.
Implications for Great Britain
The melting of Arctic ice is expected to increase sea levels around Great Britain’s coast, leading to worse coastal flooding. It will also disrupt the UK weather system by moving the jet stream, although the exact effects are not yet fully understood. British Foreign Minister David Lammy has announced new funding to work with Iceland to monitor Arctic waters, recognize enemy government activities, and research the effects on the UK.
Security Threats
The melting Arctic poses a significant security threat to Great Britain. Russia and China are increasingly active in the region, and the UK must prepare for a changing landscape without the US as a reliable ally. The safety threat is "fundamentally changed" as ships can now more easily access waters containing gas pipelines or data cables that supply Europe.
WMO Report
The WMO report also warns that a dangerous new heated threshold is on the horizon. For the first time, there is a chance that warming could exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels at some point in the next five years. While the chances are "exceptionally unlikely," this forecast would have been considered implausible just a few years ago, highlighting how quickly the climate is changing.
Future Projections
The WMO predicts that temperatures will probably reach 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels in the next five years, temporarily exceeding this threshold in 2024. If this happens, it will have dramatic consequences, including more extreme weather and migration as home countries become uninhabitable. The authors of the report warn that 2°C of warming is becoming increasingly likely and will happen sooner rather than later, driving more extreme weather events and migration.
