Introduction to Sanction Relief
During a visit to Saudi Arabia, US President Donald Trump announced plans for the cancellation of paralyzing sanctions against Syria. This move marks a significant shift in Washington’s policy towards Syria after 14 years of civil war. The country was previously isolated by sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union due to its conflict and close relationships with Iran.
Background on Sanctions
These sanctions blocked exports, froze assets, and limited access to global payment systems, further decimating an economy already ravaged by war. The sanctions also exacerbated humanitarian crises, with the UN estimating that 90% of Syrians have been pushed below the poverty line. Trump agreed to lift the sanctions despite opposition from Israel, citing national security concerns regarding Syria’s past ties to Iran and Hezbollah.
Trump’s Announcement
Trump stated that Syria had a new government "that hopefully will succeed in stabilizing the country and keeping peace." Therefore, he would "order the lifting of sanctions against Syria to give them a chance." This decision was made after discussions with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, both of whom have pushed for change since the rise of the new leadership in Damascus.
Celebration and International Response
When ordinary Syrians heard the news, they celebrated in the streets of several cities, setting off fireworks. The US legislature on both sides, as well as the United Nations, welcomed the sanction relief. Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, who had been the leader of the official wing of Al-Qaida in the Syrian conflict, briefly praised the US President.
Lifting of Sanctions and Its Impact
The lifting of sanctions will help aid agencies accelerate their deliveries of food, medicine, and other essential care to those in need. It will also smooth the way for wealthy neighbors like Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to make significant investments, promoting economic relaxation that could stabilize the region. Natasha Hall, a Senior Fellow for the Middle East at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted that several countries are nervous about the US reaction to doing business with the new Syrian leadership and are "looking up" to the lifting of sanctions.
Economic Recovery and Rebuilding
The extent of the challenge is immense, with the UN Development Programme warning that the Syrian economy lost $800 billion during the war. Estimates suggest that $400 to $600 billion will be needed to finance reconstruction, while others place the number closer to $1 trillion. The lifting of sanctions will allow for the acceleration of aid deliveries and the rebuilding of infrastructure, including roads, hospitals, and power grids.
International Investment and Support
Turkey has expressed interest in rebuilding Syria’s oil and gas sector and will likely invest significantly, especially in areas of northern Syria under its influence. Germany, which helped finance infrastructure projects in Syria before the war, may also contribute. France has a long-term agreement to modernize and operate the port of Latakia, Syria’s main port. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has expressed its willingness to support Syria, and the UN and World Bank will lead financing efforts for housing, healthcare, education, and supply companies.
Challenges Ahead
The role of the Syrian diaspora will be crucial, as they will contribute significantly through remittances, financing community projects, and providing specialist knowledge, including doctors and engineers. However, Anwar al-Qassem, an economic analyst, believes that the Syrian economy needs a miracle to recover, predicting it could take 20 to 25 years to return to half of its pre-war level.
Processing of Sanctions
Trump’s announcement was the simple part; US officials must now determine which sanctions can be canceled quickly and which may be subject to conditions for the new Syrian leadership. Hall from CSIS noted that "several layers of sanctions" were imposed on the Assad regime and "terrorist entities," predicting that not all would be repealed immediately. The US Ministry of Finance will decide on the scope of the suspension, and it is unclear whether sanction relief would be limited to certain sectors or the abolition of financial curbs.
