Introduction to China-Russia Relations
Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow for Russia’s Victory Day Parade, where his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin excluded a military representation to deny relationships with Beijing. The parade celebrated the 80th anniversary of the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II, aiming to present Russia’s resistance and ambition on the global stage.
Growing Mutual Trust
Xi explained in the Kremlin that China stands with Moscow against "hegemonial bullying" from the US, particularly from President Donald Trump, who has imposed sanctions on Russia over its invasion of Ukraine. Xi stated, "Mutual trust between China and Russia is growing deeper, with pragmatic cooperation creating an unbreakable bond." Björn Alexander Düben, an expert in Russia-China relations, believes that Xi’s visit has a "very symbolic element" and notes that Xi, apart from Brazilian President Lula da Silva, was the only major world leader to participate in the parade.
Russia’s Dependence on China
When Western sanctions suffocate Russia’s economy over the Ukraine conflict, Moscow increasingly counts on Beijing as a lifeline for energy and raw material exports. China has become Russia’s top business partner, with bilateral trade increasing to $244 billion last year. The two countries signed an economic, military, and diplomatic partnership "No Limit" in February 2022 to counteract Western influence. Since the beginning of the war, Russia’s exports to China have increased by 63% to $129.3 billion, while Chinese imports have strengthened Moscow’s war economy and bound the two nations closer together.
Military Ties and Economic Support
The two powers have tightened military ties, increased war games, and shared the latest defense technologies. Düben notes that without China’s economic support, Moscow would be in "deep chaos." China has admitted Russia access to manufactured goods and technologies that they cannot produce, and Western states no longer export to Russia. Düben said that without China, Russia’s armed forces would probably not be able to continue their military campaign against Ukraine.
US Sanctions and Trade
The US tariffs on Chinese imports have risen to unprecedented highs, and American markets have closed for Chinese exporters. China may try to explore new opportunities on the Russian market, albeit much smaller than the US. However, US secondary sanctions imposed on Moscow to stop companies in third countries from exporting to Russia have hesitated many Chinese banks from dealing with their Russian counterparts.
Siberia 2 Pipeline
A core topic of discussion during Xi’s visit was the planned Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, which is expected to channel 50 billion cubic meters of Russian gas from Yamal in northwestern Siberia via Mongolia every year. Moscow has tirelessly pursued Beijing to complete the project, but the route of the pipeline remains unsolved, underlining China’s upper hand. The Russian Minister of Energy Sergey Tsivilyov announced that the negotiations are in an "active phase," although a deal is probably not sealed during Xi’s visit.
Conclusion
The partnership between Russia and China is conducted by Beijing, defining China’s dominance, while Moscow corresponds to its global ambitions. Düben said, "In view of Russia’s unprecedented dependence on China, Moscow is increasingly bound to Beijing’s interests… and is now increasingly a supplicant."
