At a time of existential economic gloom across the EU, one of its larger member states has published consistently positive figures: Poland. With a GDP growth rate of almost 3% in 2024, the country is above the EU’s overall rate of 1% as well as the bloc’s two largest economies, France and Germany. France recorded a rate of 1.2%, while Germany suffered a decline of -0.2%.<\/p>\n
The signs are also positive for 2025. Poland recorded 0.8% growth in the second quarter, the fifth best rate in the EU. Growth of around 3.3% is forecast for this year and a rate of 3% is expected for next year. It’s not an overnight success either. Since joining the EU in 2004, average annual growth has been almost 4%, a rate that has accelerated sharply in the last decade.<\/p>\n
The stock market is booming and optimism is growing about its ability to develop into one of the EU’s most robust and dynamic economies. "Over the last two decades, Poland has definitely outperformed," according to Katarzyna Rzentarzewska, chief macro analyst for Central and Eastern Europe. "Real GDP has doubled. This is something extraordinary. Of course it is part of a convergence process, but overall Poland stands out."<\/p>\n
Poland’s success has been copied to some extent by other Eastern European and Baltic states, but its size is a key difference. "Poland is big," says Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "So it actually matters, if you will, at the whole EU level – in a way that a much smaller economy doesn’t – both politically and in terms of economic weight." Poland has a population of 37 million, making it the fifth largest in the EU. In terms of GDP, the country’s economy is now just inside the top 20 in the world.<\/p>\n
With its growing economic importance comes its strategic and geopolitical importance. In recent years it has increased defense spending to such an extent that it is now number one in NATO, accounting for around 4.5% of GDP. Much of defense spending comes from foreign orders rather than domestic production, but Rzentarzewska says much of Poland’s growth is driven by domestic private consumption rather than exports. \u201cIt is the pillar of growth,\u201d she says, pointing out that Poland\u2019s strong domestic market is reflected in low unemployment and strong real wage growth.<\/p>\n
The key to success is successful integration into the EU, NATO, the Schengen area and the OECD. "If we look at the overall concept of integration, Poland has done really well," says Rzentarzewska. Although it has not joined the euro area, it has benefited from significant EU funding since joining in 2004. "We cannot deny that access to European funds has been huge \u2013 a key factor in growth," she says. Kirkegaard agrees, saying Poland \u201cgot the basics right.\u201d <\/p>\n
Still, there are potential headwinds. For the past two decades, Poland has been politically divided between a large right-wing bloc led by the populist and conservative Law and Justice party and a liberal center-left bloc. The victory of a Eurosceptic independent candidate in the 2025 presidential election was seen as potentially damaging to Poland’s future EU relations. A few weeks after coming to power, the Prime Minister managed to convince the European Commission to release 137 billion euros in funding provided he brought the Polish justice system back into line with EU norms and rules.<\/p>\n
However, it also warns that additional spending combined with increases in defense spending and the post-pandemic inflation shock have contributed to a strained fiscal situation in Poland. According to the latest plans, Poland’s national deficit will amount to 6.5% of GDP in 2026. "Poland has to address this," says Rzentarzewska. "We have to undergo fiscal consolidation and austerity measures, and of course that is something that can slow growth.\u201d<\/p>\n
However, she emphasizes that the current confidence is justified. \u201cThe low unemployment rate, consumer confidence and, above all, high productivity \u2013 all contribute to overall sentiment, positive sentiment and economic performance.\u201d Kirkegaard agrees and says Poland has a lot to teach the rest of the EU about economic dynamism and flexibility. "There was a time when Michigan and what is now known as the ‘Rust Belt’ of the United States was the economically dominant part of the U.S. economy," he said. \u201cThat is no longer the case. But if you assume that Germany is unable to reform itself, and Poland continues to perform as it has since joining the EU 20 years ago, then at some point it will eclipse countries like Germany, which could become the Rust Belt of Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Economic Success in the EU At a time of existential economic gloom across the EU, one of its larger member states has published consistently positive figures: Poland. With a GDP growth rate of almost 3% in 2024, the country is above the EU’s overall rate of 1% as well as the bloc’s two largest economies,<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25888,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36],"tags":[3390,15999,16004,1974,3561,93,5557,3125,16006,6204,9454,400,7557,1352,16001,1814,2452,70,16003,16005,6910,1421,9715,1243,1240,1236,6685,367,2222,16002,16007,12580,1235,16000,2476,1428,91,304],"class_list":{"0":"post-25887","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-business","8":"tag-baltic-states","9":"tag-central-europe","10":"tag-centre-left-politics","11":"tag-conservatism","12":"tag-consumption-economics","13":"tag-economic-growth","14":"tag-economy-of-the-united-states","15":"tag-european-commission","16":"tag-euroscepticism","17":"tag-eurozone","18":"tag-existentialism","19":"tag-export","20":"tag-fiscal-policy","21":"tag-france","22":"tag-funk","23":"tag-germany","24":"tag-government-budget-balance","25":"tag-inflation","26":"tag-law-and-justice","27":"tag-left-bloc-portugal","28":"tag-liberalism","29":"tag-michigan","30":"tag-peterson-institute-for-international-economics","31":"tag-poland","32":"tag-polish-peoples-republic","33":"tag-polish-lithuanian-commonwealth","34":"tag-populism","35":"tag-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom","36":"tag-productivity","37":"tag-real-wages","38":"tag-rust-belt","39":"tag-schengen-area","40":"tag-second-polish-republic","41":"tag-size-matters","42":"tag-social-norm","43":"tag-stock-market","44":"tag-unemployment","45":"tag-united-states"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25887","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25887"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25887\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25889,"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25887\/revisions\/25889"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25888"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25887"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25887"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/nanamedia.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25887"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}